Reform UK leads Labour in shock election poll

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Recent polling indicates Reform UK could secure a surprising victory in an upcoming by-election in Runcorn and Helsby, Cheshire, following the resignation of a Labour MP who assaulted a constituent.

The contest, for which a date remains unconfirmed, shows remarkable potential for Nigel Farage’s party despite Labour’s previously commanding position in the constituency. Survey data from respected pollster Lord Ashcroft reveals Reform UK leading with 40 percent support, while Labour trails at 35 percent. The Conservative Party, traditionally the dominant force on Britain’s right, languishes at just 10 percent.

The numbers become even more favorable for Reform UK when considering only those voters who declare themselves certain to participate. Among these committed voters, Reform’s lead extends to nine points, commanding 42 percent support. This advantage stems from Reform supporters’ notably higher commitment to voting, with Labour struggling to motivate its base – only 55 percent of their supporters indicate they will definitely cast a ballot.

Reform UK surges ahead – The latest YouGov poll puts Reform at 27%, leading Labour (25%) and leaving the Tories (21%) behind. @ChristopherHope joins @MartinDaubney to break down these seismic shifts in UK politics. pic.twitter.com/UtS5Pk3eCf

— GB News (@GBNEWS) February 18, 2025

The dramatic shift in voter sentiment comes less than a year after Labour’s Mike Amesbury secured the seat with 52.9 percent of the vote and a substantial 14,700-vote margin. Labour’s position has deteriorated significantly since the general election just 254 days ago, while Reform UK has experienced sustained growth in national polls, frequently ranking as Britain’s most popular or second most popular party.

Labour’s prospects have been further damaged by the circumstances necessitating the by-election. Amesbury’s departure follows his conviction for common assault after attacking a constituent during a night out. The incident, which saw the MP punch his victim once before delivering five more blows while the man was down, included Amesbury shouting, “You won’t threaten the MP ever again, will you?” Witnesses ultimately had to intervene to restrain him.

While Labour has selected local councillor and former teacher Karen Shore as their candidate, Reform UK has yet to name their representative. The party enters the contest following internal turmoil, marked by the recent departure of prominent figure Rupert Lowe amid serious allegations from party leadership, which Lowe denies and has threatened legal action over.

Reform leads in another national poll!

It’s the first time we’ve led with this pollster (More In Common).

Reform has all the momentum in British politics. 🇬🇧

REF UK 26% (+1)
LAB 25% (-)
CON 23% (-)
LIB DEM 12% (-)
GREEN 7% (-1)
SNP 2% (-)

14 – 18 Feb, Change w 7-10 Feb pic.twitter.com/WgenVTSW8U

— Zia Yusuf (@ZiaYusufUK) February 19, 2025